WEB APPENDIX for Fowler, James H. “Elections and Markets: The Effect of Partisan
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چکیده
Tables A-1 and A-2 explain how data are derived from futures prices. Panels are based on the following periods: 6/10/88-11/9/88, 1/22/92-11/4/92, 6/21/94-11/9/94, 1/2/96-11/6/96, 2/3/9811/4/98, 1/3/00-11/10/00, 7/20/02-11/6/02. These periods start on the first day in which at least one bond futures price and one election futures contract price are observed within the year of the election and they end the day the election outcome is known. IEM records daily historical data prices at midnight after the market has absorbed all the prime-time news. This contrasts with financial markets that close in the afternoon before critical campaign information is released. Therefore electoral probabilities are lagged by one day relative to interest rates to make sure that today's financial markets know about yesterday evening's political news. This should also address concerns about possible endogeneity.
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Elections and Markets: The Effect of Partisanship, Policy Risk, and Electoral Margins on the Economy
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